Post by Watchman on Oct 10, 2006 12:01:39 GMT -5
Mark Dunn
PENTAGON hawks will try to persuade US President George W. Bush he should order immediate military air strikes to obliterate North Korean nuclear sites.
Australian National University defence expert Ron Huisken said Mr Bush's chief advisers would be gunning for action without waiting for a lead from the United Nations.
"The President will receive some advice to the effect that it is better not to wait, that there will not be a clearer trigger point than what we have now," said Dr Huisken, senior fellow at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.
"I suspect (Vice-President Dick) Cheney and (Defence Secretary Donald) Rumsfeld might argue we now know (they've got the bomb) and we've got to do this some time.
"I think they have an eye also on Iran. You certainly can't rule (an attack) out."
The ANU centre's director, Robert Ayson, said the stakes were high.
He said the problem the US faced in attacking would be North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's promise to turn South Korean capital Seoul into "a sea of fire" and the potential for it to launch missiles on Japan.
Dr Ayson said the US had 37,000 troops in South Korea and casualties would be high. Pyongyang had an estimated 80,000 artillery pieces concentrated on the area and may use non-conventional chemical weapons.
Despite the risks, Dr Ayson, a specialist in North Asian strategy, said the US military option was a real possibility, given Mr Bush has said he could not tolerate a nuclear North Korea.
"Military action is now more likely after the test, but is probably less than 50 per cent (likely)," Dr Ayson said.
US intelligence sources said the Bush Administration was considering naval action around North Korea, stopping short of a blockade but intercepting and inspecting all ships off the peninsula.
Analysts estimate North Korea may have enough nuclear material for a dozen weapons and has built two or three, but is yet to miniaturise them enough for long-range missiles.
The major threat its nuclear capacity posed was the potential for it to sell a bomb to a terrorist group that would sail it to a US port, or the possibility for it to drop a device from an aircraft over a major city.
The regime has claimed to have had nuclear arms since 1995; they are mainly plutonium-based but North Korea is also known to be developing uranium-based material.
Dr Huisken said China would be angered by North Korea ignoring its demands in recent weeks not to conduct the test -- a factor that should lead to quick agreement by the UN Security Council for economic and diplomatic sanctions against the regime.
"For the first time in four years Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo and Washington would be prepared to agree that this is an intolerable development," Dr Huisken said.
"I think the hardest part will be to agree on how far to go."
But US military strikes could eventuate if the UN process gets bogged down, military analyst Derek Woolner said.
"Military action is possible but it is more important to get a strong international diplomatic response," he said.
China, North Korea's main ally and benefactor, would now increase its pressure on Pyongyang, including the possibility of withdrawing financial and food support, which could leave millions more North Koreans at risk of starvation.
Mr Woolner said the nuclear crisis might also drive the US and China closer together.
Iran, which continues to ignore international pleas to abandon its nuclear program, is also likely to be encouraged if North Korea is not dealt with harshly.
Mr Woolner said the US and Australia had been concerned for some time about North Korea's desire to spread missile technology and the potential for it to share its nuclear developments with Iran and others.
Mr Woolner said the US would redouble its efforts to destabilise Kim Jong-il from within North Korea, but its isolation made that prospect difficult and he faced no established opposition.
"There are continuing whispers about just how strong his grasp on power is," Mr Woolner said.
But others, including Dr Ayson, believe the military leadership in Pyongyang fully supports North Korea's entry into the nuclear arms club
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