Post by Watchman on Jan 20, 2006 18:18:58 GMT -5
Bin Laden Threat Points to Imminent Attack, Analyst Says
By Sherrie Gossett
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
An audio statement by Osama bin Laden broadcast on al-Jazeera television Thursday appears to be related to recent threats made by an al Qaeda front in Europe and points to an imminent attack, according to a Washington-based analyst.
Christopher L. Brown of the Hudson Institute earlier this month analyzed the Jan. 6 videotaped message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's chief deputy. The tape, Brown said, and other al Qaeda communications indicated a high probability that al Qaeda would launch a major terrorist attack in the next 30 days and that the United States was the likeliest target.
Cybercast News Service reported on Brown's analysis in an exclusive report published on Jan. 11. Brown, a researcher with a Washington think tank, has briefed members of Congress and senior administration officials on key threats. He has also prepared testimony and briefing materials for officials at the Department of Defense, State Department, CIA, National Security Council and White House.
"The new operation of al Qaeda has not happened, not because we could not penetrate the security measures," bin Laden said during the broadcast. "It is being prepared, and you'll see it in your homeland very soon."
The al Qaeda leader also offered a truce to the American people, referring to polls that indicate the majority of U.S. citizens favor troop withdrawal from Iraq.
"We are a nation that Allah banned from lying and stabbing others in the back," said bin Laden. "Hence, both parties of the truce will enjoy stability and security to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by war."
Brown told Cybercast News Service that approximately "six to eight weeks ago," the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades -- an al Qaeda front headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- posted threats on the Internet promising attacks soon in the "land of the Romans," adding that bin Laden would make an appearance "around the Christmas holidays."
Intelligence officials are now saying they believe the bin Laden audiotape was made in December. "That makes sense to me," Brown said. "The Jan. 6 [Zawahiri] video was likely also made in middle to early December."
The Brigades is one of the primary front names for al Qaeda operations in Europe and North America.
Earlier this month Brown as well as Dan Darling of the Manhattan Institute for Policing Terrorism, told Cybercast News Service that the "land of the Romans" could be a symbolic reference to the United States as the great imperial power of the age.
He added that it could also be a reference to the "Romanesque" architecture in Washington, D.C.
Bin Laden uses the term "Romans" as a synonym for Crusaders and America. In an audiotape broadcast on Al-Jazeera on Jan. 4, 2004 bin Laden called for jihad to "repulse the raid of the Romans, which started in Iraq; no one knows where it will end."
Italy -- an obvious possibility for the "land of the Romans" -- has received numerous threats from the Brigades over the last six months.
In early January, three Algerians from the Salafist Group for Call and Combat -- or GSPC -- were arrested in southern Italy. Officials said they were suspected of being linked to a planned series of strikes against both Italy and the United States. The alleged U.S. attacks were designed to outdo the Sept. 11, 2001, strikes and targeted ships, stadiums and railway stations.
Still, al Qaeda is known to use misdirection when announcing its targets.
The Brigades' Internet posting, under the name of al Qaeda's reputed military commander Saif al-Adel, said the attacks would involve unidentified poisonous substances and surface-to-air missiles procured from Chechnya.
The message was posted the same month French terrorism investigators reported that an interrogation of al Qaeda suspect Abu Atiya revealed the group had allegedly procured advanced Russian-made man-portable missile systems and ricin, botulin and other toxins from Chechnya.
These weapons have not been found but were allegedly smuggled into Europe.
The missile system reference was specifically to the sophisticated SA-18 missile, which has greater altitude and range than its predecessors and includes better protection against electro-optical jammers found on military aircraft. Brown acknowledged the possibility that the weapons were smuggled into the U.S.
The alleged author of the Brigades posting, Saif al-Adel, is al Qaeda's top military commander. "He's the head of al Qaeda's military committee within the Shura Council," said Brown, "a position analogous to the Secretary of Defense within the U.S. government, which means al-Adel answers directly to Bin Laden and Zawahiri."
In addition, al-Adel is the direct superior to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the reputed head of the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades and leader of al Qaeda's operations in Iraq.
"As large-scale operations in either of these regions requires the direct approval of bin Laden or Zawahiri, the command path for such an order would most likely be from them to al-Adel, then to Zarqawi, and finally to assets in the area meant for attack," said Brown.
"Hence, the importance of this specific threat, given that it references both al-Adel and the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades," he added.
As previously reported by Cybercast News Service, Brown believes a timing pattern inherent in the Ayman al-Zawahiri videos and Abu-Hafs al-Masri brigade statements "green-lighting" attacks indicate a "99 percent" chance al Qaeda will launch a major terrorist attack soon outside the major theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan.
A Cybercast News Service report on Sept. 8, 2005, detailed Brown's warning regarding an impending October attack. The article was followed by the Bali bombings on Oct. 1, 2005. Brown also previously predicted within a 30-day time frame, the July 2005 bombings and their location in London.
Bin Laden's audiotape represents the first time since December of 2004 that bin Laden has issued an audio statement. The al Qaeda leader has previously promised he would not appear again on video until after the next attack on America, suggesting to some that his infrequent appearances are planned to maximize dramatic impact. His silence or other factors led several pundits to speculate that the al Qaeda leader was dead.
All original CNSNews.com material, copyright 1998-2005 Cybercast News Service.
By Sherrie Gossett
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
An audio statement by Osama bin Laden broadcast on al-Jazeera television Thursday appears to be related to recent threats made by an al Qaeda front in Europe and points to an imminent attack, according to a Washington-based analyst.
Christopher L. Brown of the Hudson Institute earlier this month analyzed the Jan. 6 videotaped message of Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's chief deputy. The tape, Brown said, and other al Qaeda communications indicated a high probability that al Qaeda would launch a major terrorist attack in the next 30 days and that the United States was the likeliest target.
Cybercast News Service reported on Brown's analysis in an exclusive report published on Jan. 11. Brown, a researcher with a Washington think tank, has briefed members of Congress and senior administration officials on key threats. He has also prepared testimony and briefing materials for officials at the Department of Defense, State Department, CIA, National Security Council and White House.
"The new operation of al Qaeda has not happened, not because we could not penetrate the security measures," bin Laden said during the broadcast. "It is being prepared, and you'll see it in your homeland very soon."
The al Qaeda leader also offered a truce to the American people, referring to polls that indicate the majority of U.S. citizens favor troop withdrawal from Iraq.
"We are a nation that Allah banned from lying and stabbing others in the back," said bin Laden. "Hence, both parties of the truce will enjoy stability and security to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by war."
Brown told Cybercast News Service that approximately "six to eight weeks ago," the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades -- an al Qaeda front headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- posted threats on the Internet promising attacks soon in the "land of the Romans," adding that bin Laden would make an appearance "around the Christmas holidays."
Intelligence officials are now saying they believe the bin Laden audiotape was made in December. "That makes sense to me," Brown said. "The Jan. 6 [Zawahiri] video was likely also made in middle to early December."
The Brigades is one of the primary front names for al Qaeda operations in Europe and North America.
Earlier this month Brown as well as Dan Darling of the Manhattan Institute for Policing Terrorism, told Cybercast News Service that the "land of the Romans" could be a symbolic reference to the United States as the great imperial power of the age.
He added that it could also be a reference to the "Romanesque" architecture in Washington, D.C.
Bin Laden uses the term "Romans" as a synonym for Crusaders and America. In an audiotape broadcast on Al-Jazeera on Jan. 4, 2004 bin Laden called for jihad to "repulse the raid of the Romans, which started in Iraq; no one knows where it will end."
Italy -- an obvious possibility for the "land of the Romans" -- has received numerous threats from the Brigades over the last six months.
In early January, three Algerians from the Salafist Group for Call and Combat -- or GSPC -- were arrested in southern Italy. Officials said they were suspected of being linked to a planned series of strikes against both Italy and the United States. The alleged U.S. attacks were designed to outdo the Sept. 11, 2001, strikes and targeted ships, stadiums and railway stations.
Still, al Qaeda is known to use misdirection when announcing its targets.
The Brigades' Internet posting, under the name of al Qaeda's reputed military commander Saif al-Adel, said the attacks would involve unidentified poisonous substances and surface-to-air missiles procured from Chechnya.
The message was posted the same month French terrorism investigators reported that an interrogation of al Qaeda suspect Abu Atiya revealed the group had allegedly procured advanced Russian-made man-portable missile systems and ricin, botulin and other toxins from Chechnya.
These weapons have not been found but were allegedly smuggled into Europe.
The missile system reference was specifically to the sophisticated SA-18 missile, which has greater altitude and range than its predecessors and includes better protection against electro-optical jammers found on military aircraft. Brown acknowledged the possibility that the weapons were smuggled into the U.S.
The alleged author of the Brigades posting, Saif al-Adel, is al Qaeda's top military commander. "He's the head of al Qaeda's military committee within the Shura Council," said Brown, "a position analogous to the Secretary of Defense within the U.S. government, which means al-Adel answers directly to Bin Laden and Zawahiri."
In addition, al-Adel is the direct superior to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the reputed head of the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades and leader of al Qaeda's operations in Iraq.
"As large-scale operations in either of these regions requires the direct approval of bin Laden or Zawahiri, the command path for such an order would most likely be from them to al-Adel, then to Zarqawi, and finally to assets in the area meant for attack," said Brown.
"Hence, the importance of this specific threat, given that it references both al-Adel and the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades," he added.
As previously reported by Cybercast News Service, Brown believes a timing pattern inherent in the Ayman al-Zawahiri videos and Abu-Hafs al-Masri brigade statements "green-lighting" attacks indicate a "99 percent" chance al Qaeda will launch a major terrorist attack soon outside the major theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan.
A Cybercast News Service report on Sept. 8, 2005, detailed Brown's warning regarding an impending October attack. The article was followed by the Bali bombings on Oct. 1, 2005. Brown also previously predicted within a 30-day time frame, the July 2005 bombings and their location in London.
Bin Laden's audiotape represents the first time since December of 2004 that bin Laden has issued an audio statement. The al Qaeda leader has previously promised he would not appear again on video until after the next attack on America, suggesting to some that his infrequent appearances are planned to maximize dramatic impact. His silence or other factors led several pundits to speculate that the al Qaeda leader was dead.
All original CNSNews.com material, copyright 1998-2005 Cybercast News Service.