Post by Watchman on Aug 23, 2006 12:28:46 GMT -5
History shows that over the past three centuries, a new pandemic has emerged at least every 50 years, and experts believe we may be due for the next one. The likely culprit is the H5N1 virus, known as avian influenza. To date, the virus has not spread regularly from human to human, but scientists believe it is only a matter of time before it mutates into a form that allows that kind of transmission.
Sometime in the very near future, the next influenza pandemic will sweep across the globe, infecting billions, killing millions, crippling health care systems and bringing economies to a halt.
This, a leading expert on infectious disease told an audience Thursday, is not a guess. It's not a theory or a worst-case scenario. It is a sure thing.
That's the bad news, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
The good news is there still is time to soften the blow.
"The issue is not if, it's when, so we have to prepare," Osterholm said. "The worst thing we can do is not prepare and think it will not happen.
"The truth of the matter is, there's a lot we can do about it," he said.
Osterholm, who has discussed pandemic influenza on CNN, "Nightline" and "The Oprah Winfrey Show," brought his knowledge of the subject to a town hall meeting hosted by the McHenry County Department of Health.
A flu pandemic, Osterholm said, occurs when a new influenza strain emerges that is readily transmitted among humans, is genetically unique to earlier strains and possesses increased virulence, or the ability to kill.
The last time a pandemic occurred was in 1968 when H3N2 -- better known as Hong Kong flu -- emerged, killing an estimated 700,000 worldwide, including nearly 40,000 in the United States.
History shows that over the past three centuries, a new pandemic has emerged at least every 50 years, and experts believe we may be due for the next one. The likely culprit is the H5N1 virus, known as avian influenza. To date, the virus has not spread regularly from human to human, but scientists believe it is only a matter of time before it mutates into a form that allows that kind of transmission.
Osterholm, a consultant for the U.S. departments of Homeland Security and Human Services, believes when it does it will kill at least 2.7 million worldwide and as many as 360 million in a worst- case scenario.
And if that happens, Osterholm predicts, it will overwhelm limited federal and state resources, leaving communities to fend for themselves.
To do that Osterholm said, communities need to start today at creating leadership networks, planning relief efforts and building health-care strategies in their local areas.
"Nobody in Washington or even Springfield is going to be here to help you, so you need to start thinking about this now," he said. "No investment you ever make in this is going to be wasted."
Although Osterholm said he believes tough times are ahead when the pandemic hits, he said despairing over it is no more of a solution than hoping it never comes.
"Every population that endured one of these has survived it," he said. "We just have to keep telling ourselves that."
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